A corporate balance sheet, prepared according to
generally accepted accounting principles, does a
reasonable job informing about the physical assets and
financial capital employed by a company. But when it
comes to the increasingly important intangible assets of
corporate enterprises, it provides next to no
insight.
Under GAAP, expenditures made to increase brand
awareness, to foster innovation, or to improve the
productivity of employees cannot be capitalized.
Instead, the logic goes, they must be expensed through
the income statement, because the future benefits of
such investments are so uncertain. The problem with
that, says Baruch Lev, an accounting and finance
professor at New York University, is that corporate
investment in tangible assets has stagnated. "It's the
investments in R&D, Internet applications, human
resources, and customer acquisition that drive the
performance of companies now. And there is no indication
of the value of those investments in financial reports,"
he says.
The aim of CFO's third annual Knowledge Capital
Scorecard, developed by Lev with the help of Marc
Bothwell, a vice president and portfolio manager at
Credit Suisse Asset Management, is to quantify those
intangible values. On a more itemized basis, knowledge
capital is intellectual and human capital, customer and
supplier capital. It is the sum of all the intangible
factors and qualities that enable a company to earn a
better-than-average return on its GAAP-valued asset
base. Thus, a company with a strong brand name gets
better prices than its competitors. Those with effective
R&D programs are better able to defend their markets
and create new ones. And those with superior employee
training garner a variety of productivity benefits.
This year's Scorecard, which ran the numbers for the
leading companies ranked by knowledge capital in 22
nonfinancial industries, confirms the importance of such
intangible assets. As was the case last year, companies
with high levels of investment in R&D and
advertising continued to show higher levels of knowledge
earnings and far better stock performance than companies
with lower levels of spending in those areas. Intel
topped the list in 1999, with knowledge earnings of $9.5
billion. The semiconductor giant also came in with the
highest level of knowledge capital--the present
discounted value of all future knowledge earnings--at
$209 billion, surpassing last year's leader, Microsoft,
which saw its knowledge capital drop 10 percent, to $189
billion. Pharmaceuticals giant Pfizer posted the largest
increase in knowledge earnings ($3 billion) for the
year, due in large part to its acquisition of
Warner-Lambert.
As the Scorecard shows, however, knowledge earnings
and capital are relevant to more than just New Economy
and pharmaceutical companies. Consider Ford Motor and
General Motors. The book value of Ford as of its
September 30, 2000, 10Q filing was $18.3 billion,
compared with $31.5 billion for GM. Ford posted
knowledge earnings of $6.7 billion, more than 50 percent
higher than GM's $4.3 billion. This comparison suggests
that Ford is doing a much better job managing the
intangible drivers of value in the motor vehicles
business. "Knowledge capital is not just a New Economy
metric," says Lev. "It indicates a company's
profitability, both historical and anticipated, above an
expected rate of return on physical and financial
assets."
This year's results also indicate the value of
incorporating knowledge capital into investment
analysis. For example, the Scorecard shows that the
market valuations of such New Economy stars as Dell
Computer, Microsoft, and Intel, as well as
knowledge-intensive companies in the pharmaceutical and
biotech industries, have very little to do with the
assets reflected on their balance sheets. Their stocks
trade at huge multiples of book value (examples: Dell,
17.5; Pfizer, 18.2). But when knowledge capital is added
to book value (a sum deemed comprehensive value by Lev),
the ratio of market value to that comprehensive value
becomes far more reasonable: Dell, 1.26; Pfizer,
1.90.
Companies with a ratio of market value to
comprehensive value significantly above 1 can be viewed
as overvalued. Those with a ratio below 1 are probably
undervalued. The negative correlation between this ratio
and the subsequent stock returns of the 105 companies
evaluated in the Scorecard was remarkably strong.
Between the August 31, 2000, cutoff date for the
Scorecard analysis and the end of last year, the average
weighted return of 53 companies with a ratio of market
value to comprehensive value below the median of 1.08
was 7 percent. For the 52 companies with a ratio above
the median, the average return was -15.5 percent.
Companies with some of the highest ratios, such as
Broadcom (8.5) and Siebel Systems (5.8), have since
experienced some of the most severe slides in the stock
market. Broadcom is down 80 percent since last August,
and Siebel is down 60 percent. In contrast, companies
trading at low multiples of comprehensive value fared
far better. The shares of Rockwell International, for
example, with a ratio of 0.62, and Georgia Pacific
(0.35) were both up 15 percent over the same period.
"We compared it with other metrics, and this was
a particularly strong result," says Bothwell.
"If a stock looked overvalued according to our
metric, the market realigned it." Giving further
credence to the argument that intangible assets and
knowledge capital are the real drivers of value in
corporate enterprises. --A.O.
BUILDING A BETTER SCORECARD
WHAT ARE KNOWLEDGE EARNINGS and knowledge capital?
New York University accounting and finance professor
Baruch Lev's methodology for computing these values
begins with an estimate of a company's "normalized
earnings." That figure is derived from the average
of three years of historical core earnings, and three
years of consensus analyst estimates as compiled by IBES
International. Thus, knowledge earnings reflect both
past performance and future growth potential.
These normalized earnings are then compared with the
expected rates of return on the company's physical and
financial assets as recorded on its balance sheet. In
the competitive global marketplace, physical and
financial assets have largely become commodities. The
expected aftertax returns used in the broad
cross-sectional Scorecard are 7 percent for physical
assets and 4.5 percent for financial assets. In company-
specific measurements, physical and financial assets are
adjusted to fair values, and their expected returns are
adjusted to company circumstances.
The portion of normalized earnings for any given year
that exceeds the expected returns on book assets
represents knowledge earnings--the performance
contribution attributable to the intangible assets of a
company. Knowledge capital is then computed as the
present discounted value of all future knowledge
earnings. Without a widely accepted expected rate of
return for knowledge assets, the average 10.5 percent
historical aftertax return of three knowledge-rich
industries (software, biotechnology, and
pharmaceuticals) is used as the discount rate. --
A.O.
ACROSS THE BOARDS
From aerospace & defense to telecom equipment,
industry rankings of median knowledge-capital earnings.
Industry |
Knowl.
Capital ($ millions) |
Knowl
Earnings '99 ($ millions) |
Change
in Knowl. Earnings '98-'99 ($ millions) |
Knowl.
Capital / Book Value |
Market
Value / Book Value |
Market
Value / Compre- hensive Value |
Market
Value 8/31/00 ($ millions) |
Aerospace
& Defense |
23,447 |
1,417 |
65 |
3.58 |
1.8 |
.50 |
11,407 |
Airlines |
7,949 |
399 |
22 |
2.12 |
1.0 |
0.55 |
5,496 |
Biotech |
4,393 |
171 |
40 |
5.18 |
16.3 |
3.07 |
13,940 |
Chemicals |
9,948 |
632 |
42 |
3.08 |
2.2 |
0.75 |
7,746 |
Computer
Hardware |
49,857 |
2,490 |
389 |
6.69 |
17.5 |
1.85 |
202,719 |
Computer
Software |
38,908 |
1,782 |
279 |
5.68 |
15.2 |
2.40 |
48,465 |
Electrical |
7,690 |
450 |
29 |
3.70 |
3.6 |
0.75 |
6,081 |
Electric
Utilities |
10,351 |
691 |
177 |
1.11 |
2.1 |
0.99 |
19,418 |
Food
/ Beverages |
18,565 |
1,306 |
67 |
7.48 |
9.1 |
1.08 |
27,007 |
Forest
Products |
8,884 |
854 |
285 |
0.87 |
1.58 |
0.81 |
10,322 |
Home
Products |
19,296 |
1,097 |
109 |
8.10 |
6.6 |
1.11 |
29,257 |
Industrial |
23,132 |
1,166 |
113 |
3.65 |
3.3 |
0.81 |
16,922 |
Media |
16,759 |
646 |
119 |
0.94 |
2.7 |
1.40 |
82,396 |
Motor
Vehicles |
13,413 |
962 |
97 |
3.50 |
1.9 |
0.46 |
9,205 |
Newspapers |
5,619 |
336 |
44 |
3.77 |
3.2 |
0.67 |
6,594 |
Oil |
24,559 |
2,210 |
585 |
1.71 |
3.4 |
1.27 |
55,150 |
Pharmaceuticals |
75,224 |
4,295 |
621 |
8.44 |
12.2 |
1.34 |
116,073 |
Retail |
15,406 |
885 |
115 |
2.89 |
3.8 |
1.52 |
18,486 |
Semiconductors |
42,029 |
1,859 |
1,051 |
6.23 |
12.6 |
2.08 |
89,911 |
Specialty
Retail |
10,320 |
512 |
84 |
2.62 |
8.0 |
1.77 |
17,154 |
Telecom |
81,221 |
4,851 |
660 |
3.26 |
3.5 |
1.00 |
118,288 |
Telecom
Equip. |
26,947 |
1,684 |
615 |
3.25 |
7.7 |
1.78 |
96,184 |
THE SCOPE OF KNOWLEDGE
How knowledge capital compares at the top
companies.
Industry |
Knowl.
Capital ($ millions) |
Knowl
Earnings '99 ($ millions) |
Change
in Knowl. Earnings '98-'99 ($ millions) |
Knowl.
Capital / Book Value |
Market
Value / Book Value |
Market
Value / Compre- hensive Value |
Market
Value 8/31/00 ($ millions) |
AEROSPACE
& DEFENSE |
Honeywell
Int'l |
33,839 |
2,157 |
235 |
3.60 |
3.3 |
0.71 |
30,891 |
Lockheed
Martin |
27,358 |
1,417 |
-333 |
4.20 |
1.8 |
0.34 |
11,407 |
Boeing |
23,447 |
1,590 |
614 |
1.90 |
3.8 |
1.30 |
46,270 |
Northrop
Grumman |
15,901 |
894 |
65 |
4.50 |
1.5 |
0.28 |
5,440 |
Raytheon |
8,356 |
800 |
-595 |
0.80 |
0.9 |
0.50 |
9,457 |
AIRLINES |
Delta
Airlines |
10,792 |
709 |
-15 |
2.10 |
1.2 |
0.38 |
6,071 |
AMR |
9,230 |
425 |
-174 |
1.40 |
0.7 |
.31 |
4,920 |
Southwest
Airlines |
6,668 |
374 |
68 |
2.20 |
3.7 |
1.17 |
11,280 |
U.S.
Airways |
3,420 |
251 |
60 |
NM |
NM |
0.72 |
2,280 |
BIOTECH |
Amgen |
20,786 |
1,041 |
136 |
6.0 |
22.4 |
3.20 |
77,958 |
Medimmune |
4,409 |
124 |
36 |
6.1 |
24.3 |
3.44 |
17,651 |
Biogen |
4,377 |
219 |
44 |
4.4 |
10.2 |
1.90 |
10,229 |
Chiron |
1,508 |
80 |
17 |
0.8 |
5.4 |
2.95 |
9,863 |
CHEMICALS |
DuPont |
49,085 |
2,543 |
23 |
3.7 |
3.5 |
0.75 |
46,779 |
Dow
Chemical |
29,091 |
1,844 |
748 |
3.2 |
2.0 |
0.47 |
17,761 |
PPG
Industries |
9,948 |
632 |
63 |
3.1 |
2.2 |
0.53 |
7,045 |
Air
Prods & Chems |
6,245 |
379 |
42 |
2.4 |
2.9 |
0.87 |
7,746 |
Rohm
& Haas |
4,656 |
280 |
-29 |
1.3 |
1.8 |
0.77 |
6,356 |
COMPUTER
HARDWARE |
IBM |
128,186 |
6,597 |
212 |
6.7 |
12.1 |
1.58 |
232,413 |
Dell
Computer |
83,519 |
2,490 |
547 |
12.9 |
17.5 |
1.26 |
113,251 |
Hewlett
- Packard |
49,857 |
2,598 |
-340 |
3.4 |
8.2 |
1.85 |
119,385 |
EMC |
45,958 |
1,569 |
389 |
6.9 |
32.2 |
4.06 |
213,677 |
Sun
Microsystems |
44,560 |
1,849 |
470 |
6.1 |
27.7 |
3.91 |
202,719 |
COMPUTER
SOFTWARE |
Microsoft |
188,787 |
8,526 |
2,406 |
4.6 |
8.9 |
1.60 |
368,819 |
Oracle |
54,304 |
2,314 |
904 |
8.4 |
39.4 |
4.19 |
254,509 |
Computer
Associates |
39,908 |
1,782 |
279 |
5.7 |
2.7 |
0.41 |
18,763 |
Veritas
Software |
16,988 |
176 |
143 |
5.3 |
15.1 |
2.40 |
48,465 |
Siebel
Systems |
6,180 |
176 |
53 |
6.9 |
45.6 |
5.76 |
40,715 |
ELECTRIC
UTILITIES |
AES |
28,486 |
691 |
197 |
7.1 |
7.3 |
0.90 |
29,119 |
Duke
Energy |
15,380 |
934 |
211 |
1.6 |
2.9 |
1.10 |
27,531 |
Southern |
10,351 |
847 |
177 |
1.1 |
2.1 |
0.99 |
19,418 |
FPL
Group |
5,385 |
391 |
67 |
0.9 |
1.7 |
0.85 |
9,488 |
Dominion
Res |
3,358 |
418 |
77 |
0.5 |
1.8 |
1.22 |
12,604 |
ELECTRICAL |
Emerson
Elec. |
24,717 |
1,426 |
130 |
3.9 |
4.5 |
0.91 |
28,273 |
Rockwell
Int'l. |
9,431 |
536 |
16 |
3.5 |
2.8 |
0.62 |
7,534 |
Cooper
Industries |
5,950 |
363 |
27 |
3.3 |
1.8 |
0.43 |
3,292 |
American
Pwr Conversion |
4,311 |
199 |
32 |
4.3 |
4.6 |
0.87 |
4,629 |
FOOD/
BEVERAGES |
Coca-Cola |
67,165 |
3,484 |
394 |
7.3 |
14.2 |
1.71 |
130,326 |
PepsiCo |
50,480 |
2,334 |
67 |
7.5 |
9.1 |
1.08 |
61,593 |
H.J.
Heinz |
18,565 |
1,064 |
85 |
11.4 |
8.1 |
0.65 |
13,223 |
Unilever |
18,390 |
1,306 |
36 |
3.0 |
4.4 |
1.10 |
27,007 |
Campbell
Soup |
13,022 |
835 |
47 |
95.1 |
81.3 |
0.85 |
11,140 |
FOREST
PRODUCTS |
Kimberly-
Clark |
25,308 |
1,579 |
201 |
4.5 |
5.6 |
1.02 |
31,514 |
International
Paper |
11,369 |
1,103 |
841 |
0.9 |
1.2 |
0.63 |
15,361 |
Georgia
Pacific |
8,884 |
854 |
369 |
2.2 |
1.1 |
0.35 |
4,568 |
Weyerhaeuser |
5,762 |
572 |
285 |
0.8 |
1.5 |
0.81 |
10,322 |
Williamette
Industries |
1,044 |
221 |
69 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
1.01 |
3,331 |
HOME
PRODUCTS |
Procter
& Gamble |
63,450 |
3,882 |
143 |
5.2 |
6.6 |
1.07 |
80,719 |
Gillette |
26,145 |
1,343 |
124 |
11.0 |
13.3 |
1.11 |
31,590 |
Colgate-
Palmolive |
19,296 |
1,097 |
109 |
11.8 |
17.8 |
1.40 |
29,257 |
Clorox |
8,151 |
502 |
96 |
4.5 |
4.7 |
0.86 |
8,517 |
Avon
Products |
7,675 |
455 |
24 |
NM |
NM |
1.27 |
9,304 |
INDUSTRIAL |
Tyco
International |
56,184 |
2,970 |
640 |
3.7 |
6.3 |
1.34 |
96,177 |
United
Technologies |
25,856 |
1,564 |
438 |
3.4 |
3.9 |
0.87 |
29,231 |
Caterpillar |
23,132 |
1,166 |
54 |
4.2 |
2.3 |
0.44 |
12,705 |
Illinois
Tool Works |
15,800 |
957 |
113 |
3.1 |
3.3 |
0.81 |
16,922 |
Ingersoll-
Rand |
14,453 |
819 |
77 |
4.5 |
2.3 |
0.42 |
7,340 |
MEDIA |
Walt
Disney |
53,012 |
2,126 |
59 |
2.2 |
3.5 |
1.07 |
82,396 |
Viacom |
16,759 |
646 |
188 |
0.3 |
2.1 |
1.55 |
102,113 |
Clear
Channel Comm. |
9,536 |
447 |
119 |
0.9 |
2.7 |
1.40 |
27,518 |
MOTOR
VEHICLES |
Ford
Motor |
90,338 |
6,685 |
1,680 |
3.7 |
2.1 |
0.44 |
50,951 |
General
Motors |
55,026 |
4,257 |
282 |
1.9 |
1.3 |
0.46 |
38,758 |
Delphi
Automotive Sys |
13,413 |
962 |
97 |
3.8 |
2.6 |
0.54 |
9,205 |
Johnson
Controls |
8,573 |
480 |
74 |
3.5 |
1.9 |
0.42 |
4,589 |
Paccar |
4,159 |
306 |
-4 |
1.9 |
1.5 |
0.51 |
3,246 |
NEWSPAPERS |
Gannett |
17,733 |
1,087 |
137 |
3.8 |
3.2 |
0.67 |
14,928 |
Tribune |
10,388 |
502 |
140 |
1.7 |
1.7 |
0.66 |
10,999 |
New
York Times |
5,619 |
336 |
44 |
4.2 |
4.9 |
0.95 |
6,594 |
Knight
Ridder |
4,921 |
329 |
12 |
3.0 |
2.5 |
0.63 |
4,127 |
Dow
Jones |
3,562 |
210 |
10 |
6.6 |
10.1 |
1.33 |
5,467 |
OIL |
Exxon
Mobil |
114,347 |
8,544 |
878 |
1.7 |
4.2 |
1.57 |
284,382 |
Royal
Dutch Petroleum |
27,258 |
3,818 |
585 |
0.8 |
3.7 |
2.10 |
131,204 |
Chevron |
24,559 |
2,210 |
1,026 |
1.3 |
2.9 |
1.27 |
55,150 |
Phillips
Petroleum |
8,697 |
877 |
198 |
1.7 |
3.1 |
1.14 |
15,756 |
Unocal |
8,453 |
376 |
42 |
3.4 |
3.3 |
0.74 |
8,106 |
PHARMACEUTICALS |
Pfizer |
128,610 |
5,796 |
3,017 |
8.6 |
18.2 |
1.90 |
273,069 |
Merck |
109,217 |
6,583 |
902 |
8.6 |
12.6 |
1.32 |
160,694 |
Johnson
& Johnson |
76,446 |
4,336 |
699 |
4.3 |
7.1 |
1.35 |
127,891 |
Bristol
Myers Squibb |
74,002 |
4,254 |
424 |
8.3 |
11.7 |
1.26 |
104,255 |
Pharmacia |
55,373 |
2,193 |
543 |
4.7 |
6.5 |
1.13 |
75,998 |
Eli
Lilly |
48,163 |
2,641 |
328 |
8.7 |
15.0 |
1.54 |
82,453 |
RETAIL |
Wal-Mart
Stores |
81,239 |
4,867 |
1,167 |
2.9 |
7.5 |
1.94 |
211,872 |
Sears
Roebuck |
23,457 |
1,421 |
115 |
3.6 |
1.7 |
0.36 |
10,697 |
Target |
15,406 |
885 |
128 |
2.6 |
3.5 |
0.98 |
20,999 |
Costco |
6,006 |
349 |
40 |
1.5 |
3.8 |
1.52 |
15,404 |
Kohls |
5,504 |
250 |
50 |
2.9 |
9.8 |
2.50 |
18,486 |
SEMICONDUCTORS |
Intel |
208,641 |
9,502 |
2,749 |
5.7 |
13.7 |
2.05 |
502,711 |
Applied
Materials |
44,667 |
1,856 |
1,090 |
7.3 |
11.4 |
1.38 |
70,011 |
Texas
Instruments |
39,390 |
1,860 |
1,012 |
3.1 |
8.7 |
2.11 |
109,810 |
Broadcam |
5,704 |
137 |
38 |
6.8 |
65.8 |
8.48 |
55,509 |
SPECIALTY
RETAIL |
Home
Depot |
48,849 |
2,230 |
621 |
3.5 |
8.0 |
1.77 |
111,287 |
Lowes |
10,962 |
567 |
171 |
2.1 |
3.3 |
1.06 |
17,154 |
CVS |
10,320 |
512 |
84 |
2.6 |
3.7 |
1.02 |
14,504 |
Walgreen |
9,243 |
510 |
73 |
2.3 |
8.2 |
2.50 |
33,231 |
Radioshack |
4,552 |
271 |
60 |
6.3 |
15.2 |
2.08 |
10,962 |
TELECOM |
Verizon
Communications |
114,464 |
6,462 |
1,277 |
3.3 |
3.5 |
0.80 |
118,573 |
SBC
Communications |
113,618 |
6,903 |
2,730 |
4.0 |
5.0 |
1.00 |
141,514 |
AT&T |
81,221 |
4,851 |
-222 |
0.7 |
1.1 |
0.62 |
118,288 |
Bellsouth |
53,812 |
3,568 |
660 |
3.3 |
4.3 |
1.00 |
70,185 |
Worldcom |
23,277 |
1,772 |
30 |
0.4 |
1.9 |
1.35 |
104,734 |
TELECOM
EQUIPMENT |
Cisco
Systems |
162,218 |
4,910 |
2,434 |
6.1 |
18.5 |
2.60 |
489,845 |
Lucent
Technologies |
62,824 |
3,220 |
315 |
2.4 |
5.3 |
1.57 |
139,633 |
Motorola |
26,947 |
1,684 |
1,016 |
1.3 |
3.7 |
1.62 |
78,639 |
Owens
Corning |
24,786 |
867 |
210 |
3.3 |
12.6 |
2.97 |
96,184 |
Qualcomm |
19,317 |
672 |
192 |
3.3 |
7.7 |
1.78 |
44,610 |
NM = Not meaningful
The various measures of knowledge earnings included
in this survey were designed by Prof. Baruch Lev, who
retains the exclusive rights to the measures. These
knowledge-based measures should not be used in any form
without the written permission of Professor Lev. Marc
Bothwell, vice president and portfolio manager at Credit
Suisse Asset Management, contributed to the development
of the measures and performed the required programming
and computations. Professor Lev has a patent pending on
these measures. For more information, see www.baruch-lev.com.
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